January 2024

Bulls Charge Ahead on 31 January 2024 with Robust FII DII Data Amidst Anticipation for Interim Union Budget on 1st February: NSE Share Bazaar Update

As the NSE Share Bazaar experienced a dynamic day on 31 January 2024, investors and traders eagerly anticipate the Interim Union Budget scheduled for 1st February 2024. Against this backdrop, indices showcased a roller-coaster ride, with NIFTY and BANKNIFTY playing pivotal roles. Let’s delve into the key data points and trends that shaped the day’s trading, all while keeping an eye on the forthcoming budgetary developments.

Today’s NSE Share Bazaar

NIFTY Index Movements: Bulls Regain Control

The NSE NIFTY kicked off the day at 21,487.25, slightly lower than the previous day’s close at 21,522.10. Initial weakness saw NIFTY touch a low of 21,448.85 before staging a robust recovery. Bulls took charge, propelling the index to a high of 21,741.35. Closing near the day’s peak at 21,725.70, NIFTY recorded a notable gain of 0.95%.

Comparing the top gainers and losers in the NIFTY index, pharmaceutical giant DRREDDY, automotive leader EICHERMOT, and healthcare stalwart SUNPHARMA emerged as the winners. On the flip side, engineering major LT, jewelry and watch titan TITAN, and energy heavyweight BPCL faced setbacks.

BANKNIFTY Resilience: Financial Stocks Lead Recovery

BANKNIFTY opened weak at 45,295.65 but swiftly rebounded from a low of 45,071.20. Led by financial stocks, the index marked a high of 46,179.75, closing the day at 45,996.80 with a notable gain of 1.39%. The banking sector’s resilience underscored the market’s bullish sentiment.

Top gainers in the BANKNIFTY index included Punjab National Bank (PNB), Bank of Baroda (BANKBARODA), and State Bank of India (SBIN). Surprisingly, all stocks closed in the green, showcasing the sector’s collective strength.

Index Highlights Beyond NIFTY and BANKNIFTY: Sectoral Insights

Beyond the major indices, other sectors also displayed significant movements on 31 January 2024. NIFTY NEXT 50, the index representing the mid-cap segment, showed a change of 0.86%, closing at 55,299.25. NIFTY AUTO surged by 1.85%, NIFTY MIDCAP 50 saw a 1.07% uptick, and NIFTY FMCG and NIFTY IT recorded changes of 0.91% and 0.70%, respectively.

NIFTY METAL and NIFTY PHARMA exhibited robust performances, each gaining 1.39% and 2.68%, respectively. NIFTY PSU BANK, representing the public sector banks, showed a remarkable change of 2.27%, closing at 6,271.65.

FII and DII Data For 31 January 2024: Foreign and Domestic Investors Fueling the Rally

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) played a pivotal role in shaping the market dynamics on 31 January 2024. FII made significant buys, totaling ₹26,054.03 crores, while DII displayed strong buying activity at ₹15,596.89 crores. The net effect resulted in a robust infusion of liquidity into the market, with FII/FPI and DII contributing ₹1,660.72 crores and ₹2,542.93 crores, respectively.

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FII Derivative Statistics for 31 January 2024

You can download the image below for the FII derivative stats for 31 January for your reference:

FII Derivative Statistics for 31 January 2024

Option Chain Analysis: NIFTY and BANKNIFTY Strategies

Examining the option chain data on 31 January 2024, for NIFTY and BANKNIFTY expiring on 1st and 7th February 2024, respectively, reveals interesting insights into market sentiment. For NIFTY, the top three changes in Open Interest Calls include 21900CE (+49,574), 21600CE (-27,245), and 21800CE (+11,643). On the put side, 21800PE (+11,717), 21700PE (+39,619), and 21600PE (+29,373) dominate.

BANKNIFTY’s option chain for 7th February 2024 shows notable changes in Open Interest Calls with 46000CE (+23,922), 46200CE (+17,590), and 45500CE (+7,908). The top three changes in Open Interest Puts are 46000PE (+45,465), 45500PE (+24,917), and 46100PE (+7,787). These insights into option chain data offer a glimpse into traders’ strategies and market expectations.

Interim Union Budget: A Game-Changer on 1st February

Against this backdrop of market dynamism, investors eagerly await the Interim Union Budget scheduled for 1st February 2024. The budget announcement is poised to influence market sentiment and direction, with sectors closely watching for policy changes and fiscal measures that could impact their respective industries.

Conclusion: 31 January 2024 – A Day of Bulls and Institutional Support Amid Budgetary Anticipation

In conclusion, 31 January 2024 marked a day of bullish momentum in the NSE Share Bazaar, coinciding with the anticipation of the Interim Union Budget. Both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY showcased resilience, guided by strong performances in key sectors. FII and DII activity infused liquidity, reinforcing the positive sentiment. Traders and investors closely monitoring the option chain data indicate strategic moves in response to evolving market conditions. As we navigate the intricate world of financial markets, the data from 31 January 2024 suggests a market fueled by optimism, strategic trading, and institutional support, all with an eye on the upcoming budgetary announcements.

Bulls Charge Ahead on 31 January 2024 with Robust FII DII Data Amidst Anticipation for Interim Union Budget on 1st February: NSE Share Bazaar Update Read More »

Decoding Budget 2024: Analyzing the Economic Landscape

The anticipation around Budget 2024 is heightened, considering its potential impact on the economic landscape. In this exclusive interview with HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari, Niraj Shah delves into crucial aspects, such as fiscal consolidation, capital expenditure, and the rural economy’s outlook.

Fiscal Strategy: Quality Over Quantity

Bhandari emphasizes the government’s shift towards focusing on the quality of spending rather than sheer volume. The overarching theme is fiscal discipline and consolidation. Expectations are that the fiscal deficit will align with the consolidation path, signaling a commitment to responsible financial management. The intention is to bring down overall expenditure while prioritizing capital expenditure over current expenditure.

Capital Expenditure: A Delicate Balance

Examining the budget 2024 from the lens of capital expenditure (CAPEX), Bhandari provides insights into the government’s approach. Despite fiscal consolidation, there’s a commitment to maintaining CAPEX thrust, albeit without acceleration. Bhandari notes the significance of state governments contributing significantly to CAPEX, driving construction and rural demand, with a potential 10.5% YoY increase in rupee terms.

Decoding Budget 2024

Rural Economy: Resilience Amid Challenges

The discussion shifts to the rural economy, a critical aspect of India’s financial landscape. Bhandari acknowledges the challenges posed by an uneven monsoon but highlights the unexpected resilience driven by state governments’ CAPEX. The construction sector has become a crucial source of rural income, cushioning the impact of agricultural challenges.

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State Governments’ Role: Unveiling a Growth Driver

While central government CAPEX has been noteworthy, Bhandari sheds light on the pivotal role played by state governments. Their substantial increase in CAPEX, particularly in construction, has fueled growth, emphasizing the need to view CAPEX holistically as a combination of central and state efforts.

Key Areas to Watch in Budget 2024

As Budget 2024 approaches, Bhandari identifies key focal points:

  1. Fiscal Consolidation Path: Will the government adhere to its fiscal deficit targets, considering the pre-election year dynamics?
  2. Borrowing Patterns: Bond markets are attentive to the quantum of government borrowing. Any deviation from expectations may impact market sentiments.
  3. CAPEX Estimates: The budget estimate for CAPEX in FY24 was 10 trillion rupees. Observers are keen to know if there will be an increase for FY25.
  4. State Governments’ Initiatives: Monitoring state governments’ initiatives and their contribution to growth remains crucial.

Post-Budget Scenario: RBI’s Role

Bhandari anticipates a unique scenario post the budget 2024, where fiscal policy takes a step back, marking the first fiscal drag in years. However, she sees an opportunity for monetary policy to step forward. With inflation easing and fiscal policy tightening, she suggests the RBI may focus on liquidity measures to provide a soft landing, potentially easing by 40 to 50 basis points.

External Factors: FED’s Influence

Considering the global economic landscape, Bhandari underscores the importance of monitoring cues from the Federal Reserve. A potential rate cut, not expected before June, could impact markets and global economic dynamics.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainties

Budget 2024 unfolds against a backdrop of uncertainties, both domestic and global. Bhandari’s insights provide a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities, signaling the need for a cautious yet optimistic approach to navigating the economic terrain.

Disclaimer: The content of this blog is based on an interview with Pranjul Bhandari, and the views expressed are her own. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendations.

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Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations: Unlocking India’s Growth Potential

Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations took center stage in an interview with ET Now, as Axis Bank Chief Economist Neelkanth Mishra shares insightful perspectives on the sectors poised for a policy push in the upcoming budget. From addressing liquidity concerns to discussing GDP growth projections, Mishra’s analysis sheds light on crucial aspects that could shape India’s economic trajectory.

Government Cash Balance and Liquidity:

Mishra’s Budget Expectations highlight the tight liquidity in the banking system, attributing it to the significantly elevated government cash balance with the RBI. He points out that the government’s adherence to fiscal deficit targets, coupled with higher inflows from small savings schemes, might lead to a lower borrowing requirement in the upcoming year.

Implications: Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations foresee a potential reduction in government borrowing, offering relief to financial institutions and supporting economic activities through improved liquidity.

GDP Growth Projections:

Discussing GDP growth, Mishra expresses optimism, stating that a 7% real GDP growth is realistic and reasonable, aligning with Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations. He emphasizes that nominal GDP growth could reach 11%, contingent on global conditions. Despite private capital expenditure not fully recovering, Mishra believes that the government’s primary objective should be lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Neelkanth Mishra's Budget Expectations

Implications: Positive GDP growth projections in line with Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations signify economic recovery and potential boosts to investor confidence.

Quality of Expenditure and Capex:

Mishra’s Budget Expectations delve into the quality of expenditure, anticipating a slowdown in government capex growth. He highlights the importance of maintaining high-quality expenditures, especially in areas like subsidies and basic expenses. The chief economist also emphasizes the need for cautious consolidation to prevent adverse effects on nominal GDP growth.

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Implications: Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations stress the significance of a balanced approach to government expenditure, ensuring sustainable growth through high-quality investments.

Sectors with Potential Policy Push:

Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations touch upon sectors like national highways, where he suggests that the pace of construction may not need significant acceleration. He also highlights the potential for expansion in areas like urban administration, education, and healthcare, underlining the importance of preparing India for intellectual property ownership.

Implications: Sectors identified in Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations for policy focus may experience increased government attention and potential investment, driving growth and development.

Tight Liquidity and RBI’s Stance:

Addressing the matter of tight liquidity, Mishra explains that the deliberate stance by the RBI is influenced by factors such as inflation concerns, global uncertainties, and robust economic growth, aligning with Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations. He anticipates the liquidity situation easing as the government spends its excess cash balances.

Implications: Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations foresee a gradual easing of liquidity, supporting lending activities and facilitating smoother economic operations.

Future Reforms and Growth Prospects:

Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations offer prescriptions for future reforms, including taxation reforms, urban administration transformation, and a focus on education and healthcare. He stresses the importance of preparing India for becoming a product nation with a strong emphasis on research and development.

Implications: Structural reforms in key areas, as outlined in Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations, can lay the foundation for sustained economic growth and competitiveness on a global scale.

Long-Term Growth Outlook:

Responding to the question of India’s growth outlook, Mishra expresses confidence in a strong growth trajectory for the next 5 to 7 years, aligning with Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations. He highlights the positive momentum in real estate and construction contributing to India’s growth story.

Implications: Neelkanth Mishra’s positive outlook, as echoed in his Budget Expectations, suggests a favorable environment for investors, businesses, and policymakers, paving the way for robust economic growth.

Conclusion of Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations

Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations provide valuable insights into the potential policy directions and economic prospects for India. As the nation navigates the upcoming budget, attention to liquidity, quality expenditure, and targeted reforms, in line with Neelkanth Mishra’s Budget Expectations, could contribute to a resilient and vibrant economic landscape. Investors and stakeholders may find Mishra’s perspectives instrumental in understanding the key drivers shaping India’s economic trajectory.

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30 January 2024 NSE Share Bazaar: Analyzing FII/DII Data and Option Chain Insights

In the dynamic world of the NSE Share Bazaar, the trading session on 30 January 2024 witnessed significant movements across various indices, particularly NIFTY and BANKNIFTY. Investors closely observed the market’s behavior, FII/DII activity, and option chain data to make informed decisions. Let’s delve into the key highlights of the day.

Today’s NSE Share Bazaar

NIFTY Analysis: On 30 January 2024

The NIFTY index opened with a gap of 38 points at 21,775.75 on 30 January 2024, compared to the previous close of 21,737.60. However, the day unfolded with fluctuations, reaching a high of 21,813.05 before experiencing selling pressure. Ultimately, NIFTY closed at 21,522.10, indicating a 0.99% decline. Top gainers in the NIFTY index included TATAMOTORS, BPCL, and EICHERMOT, while BAJFINANCE, ULTRACEMCO, and TITAN were among the top losers.

BANKNIFTY Performance: On 30 January 2024

BANKNIFTY opened nearly flat but couldn’t sustain its strength, closing at 45,367.75 with a minor decrease of 0.16%. PNB, BANKBARODA, and SBIN emerged as the top gainers, while IDFCFIRSTB, AXISBANK, and INDUSINDBK were among the top losers. Despite the weakness in NIFTY, BANKNIFTY exhibited resilience in its closing numbers.

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Other Index Movements:

Other key indices also experienced fluctuations. NIFTY NEXT 50, NIFTY AUTO, NIFTY MIDCAP 50, NIFTY FMCG, NIFTY IT, NIFTY METAL, NIFTY PHARMA, and NIFTY PSU BANK all showed varying degrees of change, providing a comprehensive view of the overall market sentiment.

FII/FPI & DII Cash Trading Activity: On 30 January 2024

On 30 January 2024, FII sold 1,970.52 crores in cash, while DII bought equity worth 1,002.70 crores. This trading activity indicated a cautious approach from foreign institutional investors and a positive sentiment from domestic institutional investors.

FII Derivative Data 30 Jan 2024

FII Derivative Data 30 January 2024

Option Chain Insights:

Analyzing the option chain data for NIFTY and BANKNIFTY added another layer of understanding. For NIFTY, the top three changes in Open Interest Calls for the 1 Feb 2024 Expiry were observed in 21700CE (80,058), 21600CE (39,358), and 21800CE (46,375). On the put side, 21700PE (-25,111), 21600PE (-13,552), and 21800PE (-14,386) saw the most significant changes.

For BANKNIFTY with a 31 Jan 2024 Expiry, notable changes in Open Interest Calls were witnessed in 45400CE (80,417), 45500CE (65,461), and 45200CE (52,466). Correspondingly, the top three changes in Open Interest Puts included 45500PE (-38,347), 45200PE (79,173), and 45400PE (47,547).

Conclusion:

As of 30 January 2024, the NSE Share Bazaar displayed a mix of positive and negative movements across indices. The detailed analysis of NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, and other key indices, coupled with insights into FII/DII trading activities and the option chain, equips investors with valuable information for navigating the complex landscape of the stock market. Staying informed about these trends is crucial for making well-informed investment decisions in the ever-changing world of finance.

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Unlocking Market Insights with Gautam Shah: Strength in Heavyweights – Goldilocks Premium Research

In the ever-changing landscape of the stock market, Gautam Shah, the founder and chief strategist at Goldilocks Premium Research, remains a guiding force. Let’s delve into the latest market trends and investment opportunities as discussed by Gautam Shah in a recent CNBC TV18 interview.

Gautam Shah Market Overview:

Shah of Goldilocks Premium Research begins by highlighting the unexpected strength in the market, defying initial projections of a weaker January. Despite early volatility, Shah notes the resilience, emphasizing the crucial role played by heavyweights like Reliance Industries.

Technical Analysis:

Shah’s approach involves a meticulous study of down days in a bull market, revealing insights into the market’s underlying strength. He identifies 21,850 as a pivotal resistance level, indicative of a potential surge beyond 22,300 if breached.

Unlocking Market Insights with Gautam Shah

Reliance Industries:

Reliance Industries takes center stage in Shah’s analysis, as he expresses optimism about its breakout from a prolonged underperformance phase. Gautam Shah anticipates sustained upward movement, suggesting a potential target of 3,000.

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HDFC Bank Analysis:

Contrasting with the overall market strength, HDFC Bank faces challenges, having broken various technical levels. Shah provides a technical perspective, indicating potential support around 1,380-1,400. Despite reservations, he reiterates SBI as a high-conviction idea.

Top Picks:

Highlighting his top picks, Gautam Shah mentions State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda, and various PSU stocks like BEL, BML, NTPC, and REC. He advises caution against chasing massive run-ups in stocks but underscores the potential in SBI and Bank of Baroda.

Sector-wise Analysis:

  1. Railways: Shah advises cautious profit-taking, considering the sector’s overdone performance.
  2. Defense: While recognizing its long-term potential, Shah advises against aggressive buying at current levels.
  3. Pharma and Metals: Identifying significant outperformance potential, Shah highlights Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, and Glenmark as top picks.

Real Estate:

Shah recommends taking profits in the real estate sector, which has witnessed a substantial upswing. He highlights DLF and Oberoi Realty as potential longer-term plays but suggests caution in the near term.

Conclusion: Navigating Markets with Gautam Shah

In conclusion, Gautam Shah of Goldilocks Premium Research provides a comprehensive analysis of the market landscape, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors. This article aims to provide readers with a detailed summary of Gautam Shah’s market analysis, helping them make informed decisions in a dynamic financial landscape.

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Unlocking Growth: Fintech Budget Wishlist for 2024

In anticipation of the Union Budget 2024, Falcon’s Co-founder, Priyanka Kanwar, in an interview with CNBC TV18, articulates the Fintech Budget Wishlist. The Indian fintech and digital lending industry, projected to reach $720 billion by 2030, eagerly awaits announcements that align with their expectations for innovation and expansion. In this article, we will delve into the Fintech Budget Wishlist shared by Priyanka Kanwar, focusing on the critical asks from the finance minister for the fintech sector.

1. Beyond Capital Infusion:

Priyanka Kanwar acknowledges the substantial capital allocation in the previous budget and emphasizes that capital is not a constraint for the Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) space. The Fintech Budget Wishlist emphasizes key themes such as accelerating the shift for banks towards modern Cloud-native technology, strengthening fintech-bank partnerships, and promoting female participation in fintech.

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2. Driving Financial Inclusion:

The success of the India stack with protocols like UPI, account aggregator, and Digi Locker in bringing about inclusion in the payment ecosystem forms a cornerstone of the Fintech Budget Wishlist. The critical question posed is how to transform these advancements into monetizable innovative financial products, with a specific focus on access to services like term credit, loans, fixed income, and insurance.

Fintech Budget Wishlist for 2024

3. Digital Lending Beyond Metros:

Addressing the potential surpassing of traditional bank lending by fintech lending by 2030, the conversation shifts to the need for digital lending solutions reaching small businesses and consumers in tier-three cities and beyond. The Fintech Budget Wishlist outlines key points, including the adoption of modern banking technology, strengthening fintech-bank partnerships, and offering incentives for banks to increase their risk-taking appetite.

4. Building Robust Digital Infrastructure:

The importance of a robust digital infrastructure is highlighted in the Fintech Budget Wishlist for seamless integration with existing systems, enhancing efficiency, convenience, and security. The demands for a supportive innovation ecosystem to foster research, collaboration, and incubation of emerging technologies like AI, blockchain, and cloud computing are emphasized.

5. Encouraging Investment in Banking Technology:

The need for banks to increase their investment in modern banking technology, which currently lags behind global standards, is a crucial point in the Fintech Budget Wishlist. Statistics reveal that Indian banks spend only 2 to 2.5% of their budget on technology, while the global standard is around 7 to 8%.

Conclusion of Fintech Budget Wishlist

As the fintech industry eagerly awaits the Union Budget 2024, Falcon’s Co-founder Priyanka Kanwar sheds light on the crucial aspects that could propel the sector forward. The Fintech Budget Wishlist reflects the industry’s aspirations for continued growth, innovation, and inclusivity, shaping the future of the fintech landscape. With these expectations, the Fintech Budget Wishlist becomes a blueprint for unlocking growth and advancing the fintech sector in India.

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NSE Share Bazaar Witnesses Bullish Surge on 29 January 2024: FII DII Data and Option Chain Analysis

On 29 January 2024, the NSE Share Bazaar witnessed a bullish surge, marked by notable gains in both the NIFTY and BANKNIFTY indices. The market opened with a significant gap, setting the tone for a day dominated by positive momentum. This article delves into the key data points, focusing on the performance of NSE indices, top gainers and losers, and the impact of FII/DII trading activities, shedding light on the factors that contributed to the bullish rally.

Today’s NSE Share Bazaar

NIFTY Performance: On 29 January 2024

NIFTY, the flagship index, opened at 21,433.10 on 29 January 2024, with a remarkable gap compared to the previous close of 21,352.60. Throughout the trading day, it surged to a high of 21,763.25, reflecting a robust upward movement. The closing price settled at 21,737.60, marking a notable 1.8% change. The positive momentum was largely attributed to the stellar performance of heavyweight Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), which rallied over 7%.

Top Gainers and Losers in NIFTY:

Among the top gainers in the NIFTY Index were ONGC, Reliance, and Coal India. On the flip side, the top losers included Infosys, ITC, and Cipla, underlining the diverse movements within the index components.

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BANKNIFTY Performance: On 29 January 2024

BANKNIFTY also displayed a bullish trend, opening at 45,171.50 and reaching a high of 45,660.35 during the day. The closing price settled at 45,442.35, reflecting a positive change of 1.28%. The real action, however, was observed in NIFTY, overshadowing the gains in the banking sector.

Influence of DII Buying:

One of the key drivers behind the day’s rally was the significant buying activity by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs). Their net buying value stood at 3,221.34 Crores on 29 January 2024, amplifying the market strength.

Index-wise Performance:

  • NIFTY NEXT 50: Opened at 54,564.20, reached a high of 55,081.20, and closed at 55,012.60, marking a 1.33% change.
  • NIFTY AUTO: Opened at 18,631.00, reached a high of 18,949.60, and closed at 18,927.25, reflecting a 1.68% change.
  • NIFTY MIDCAP 50: Opened at 13,293.60, reached a high of 13,556.80, and closed at 13,543.80, showing a substantial 2.29% change.
  • NIFTY FMCG: Displayed a marginal decline, opening at 55,058.15, reaching a high of 55,470.50, and closing at 55,139.10, with a minor -0.14% change.
  • NIFTY IT: Witnessed a modest increase, opening at 36,553.80, reaching a high of 36,653.25, and closing at 36,531.90, reflecting a 0.1% change.
  • NIFTY METAL: Opened at 7,766.65, reached a high of 7,853.95, and closed at 7,843.75, displaying a robust 1.6% change.
  • NIFTY PHARMA: Opened at 17,511.35, reached a high of 17,676.90, and closed at 17,623.60, with a 0.52% change.
  • NIFTY PSU BANK: Opened at 5,990.60, reached a high of 6,104.20, and closed at 6,073.90, showing a significant 2.43% change.

FII/FPI & DII Trading Activity in Cash: On 29 January 2024

On 29 January 2024, FII/FPI and DII trading activities were vibrant in the Capital Market segment. DIIs showcased a net buying value of ₹3,221.34 Crores, while FII/FPI recorded a net value of ₹110.01 Crores.

FII Derivative Statistics For 29 January 2024

FII Derivative Statistics For 29 January 2024

Option Chain Analysis:

For NIFTY’s 1 Feb 2024

Expiry, notable changes in Open Interest Calls included 21800CE (32,576), 21700CE (16,095), and 21400CE (-17,663). In Puts, 21700PE (50,043), 21600PE (65,336), and 21800PE (19,674) witnessed substantial changes.

For BANKNIFTY’s 31 Jan 2024

Expiry, significant changes in Open Interest Calls were observed in 45500CE (94,580), 45000CE (-43,346), and 45600CE (67,827). In Puts, 45500PE (1,28,486), 45400PE (55,883), and 45600PE (37,772) showed notable changes.

Conclusion:

The NSE Share Bazaar exhibited a robust bullish trend on 29 January 2024, driven by strong performances in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY indices. The day’s rally was influenced by DII buying, underlining the importance of institutional activity in shaping market trends. Option chain analysis indicated active participation and strategic moves in both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY, adding an intriguing dimension to the day’s market dynamics. Investors and traders, armed with these insights, can navigate the market with a more informed perspective.

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Navigating the Economic Landscape: Insights of Saurabh Mukherjea of Marcellus Investment Managers

In a recent interview with CNBC TV18, Saurabh Mukherjea, the founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, shared his perspectives on the current market scenario, earnings outlook, and strategic investment moves. As the head of a prominent investment firm, Mukherjea’s insights provide valuable guidance for investors navigating the complex economic landscape.

1. Earnings Slowdown Amidst Peak Rate Cycle:

Saurabh Mukherjea began the discussion by pointing out that the market is currently at the peak of the rate cycle. He anticipates an earnings slowdown, especially for large companies, which is a natural consequence at this stage. Mukherjea highlighted that despite the slowdown, the Indian economy is still robust, with companies exhibiting 15-20% earnings growth, even after the global economy has experienced a slowdown in recent years.

2. Market Overview and Positive Outlook:

Contrary to recent market fluctuations, Saurabh Mukherjea expressed optimism about the market’s overall health. He acknowledged that the small-cap segment has witnessed significant growth, with a 150% increase over the past three years. On the broader benchmark, large-cap companies are also performing well, with the Nifty showing high teens in terms of earnings compounding. Mukherjea emphasized that the market, as a whole, is in good shape.

Economic Landscape: Insights of Saurabh Mukherjea

3. Saurabh Mukherjea’s Market Prospects for 2024:

When asked about the prospects for 2024, Mukherjea provided a positive outlook. He attributed this optimism to political clarity, growing government capex, and early signs of a private sector capex upturn. According to him, if these factors align, 2024 could be another favorable year for well-run large-cap companies.

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4. Strategic Stock Entries:

Saurabh Mukherjea shed light on Marcellus Investment Managers’ recent strategic entries into specific stocks. One notable addition is Amy Organics, a company supplying intermediates to major Pharma holdings. Another key move was into Shanti Gears, the second-largest gears company, with expectations of gaining market share in the coming years.

5. HDFC Bank Analysis and Investment Strategy:

Discussing HDFC Bank, one of Marcellus’s significant positions, Mukherjea reassured investors about the bank’s fundamentals. Despite recent market concerns, he highlighted HDFC Bank’s consistent loan book growth and its market share dominance over the last 25 years. Mukherjea sees the recent issues as transitional and expressed confidence in HDFC Bank’s long-term prospects.

6. The Private Capex Theme:

Saurabh Mukherjea emphasized the importance of the private capex theme, mentioning strategic investments in companies like RHI Magnesita, Shanti Gears, and SRF. He anticipates that as the Western economies recover, the demand for Indian IT companies providing AI and cloud services will increase, creating substantial opportunities.

7. IT Services and the Move to the Cloud:

On the IT services front, Mukherjea believes that as Western economies move to cloud and AI, Indian IT companies will witness substantial growth. Marcellus has maintained positions in TCS, LTTS, and DataLXC, anticipating that the demand for IT services will surge once the Western economic cycle turns.

Conclusion:

Saurabh Mukherjea’s insights provide a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape, emphasizing the resilience of the Indian market amidst global challenges. Investors can gain valuable perspectives on potential sectors for growth and strategic considerations when navigating the ever-changing financial markets. As always, it’s crucial for investors to conduct further research and analysis based on their individual financial goals and risk tolerance.

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Navigating Interim Budget 2024 Expectations: Insights into Tax Slabs, Capex, and Fiscal Deficit

Introduction to the Interim Budget:

As the much-anticipated interim budget approaches, economists and investors eagerly assess the landscape, speculating on potential changes in tax slabs, capex, and the fiscal deficit. In this discussion of CNBC TV18, respected economists Samiran Chakrabarty (Citi), Soumya Kanti Ghosh (SBI), Kaushik Das (Deutsche Bank), and R-Kavita Rao (NIPFP) offer valuable insights into the key expectations from the interim budget set to be presented on Feb 1.

1. Populist Announcements and Election Dynamics:

The video commences by addressing the impact of upcoming elections on budgetary decisions. Samiran Chakrabarty notes historical trends, indicating that interim budgets typically avoid introducing entirely new schemes. However, the panel suggests that smaller adjustments, such as increasing the PM Kisan scheme amount, might be considered as part of the populist expectations in this pre-election year.

Interim Budget 2024 Expectations

2. Tax Cuts and Income Growth:

Shifting the focus to tax-related expectations, the experts discuss the potential for tax cuts, especially in light of the substantial growth in income tax witnessed in the current year. The panel suggests that while limited tax giveaways may be expected for the lowest income bracket, any exemptions should align with encouraging taxpayers to migrate to the new tax regime, which offers fewer exemptions.

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3. Tax Buoyancy and Revenue Expectations:

Addressing the question of tax buoyancy, the experts share their perspectives. Samiran Chakrabarty acknowledges the government’s conservative estimates but anticipates a slightly higher tax buoyancy this year due to improved compliance. The discussion then emphasizes the anticipated boost in non-tax revenue, driven by higher RBI dividends and continued profitability in PSU enterprises.

4. Capex and Fiscal Deficit:

Economists express optimism regarding capital expenditure (capex), expecting a positive surprise. Soumya Kanti Ghosh anticipates double-digit growth in capex, reaching around 3.5% of GDP. The discussion emphasizes the shift from disinvestment to non-tax revenue, driven by the profitability of public sector companies. The economists also discuss the likelihood of divestment reaching expected levels and its positive economic impact.

5. Fiscal Deficit Projections:

While discussing interim budget expectations, the critical question of fiscal deficit projections arises, with varying opinions among economists. Kavita Rao and Kosik Das lean towards a fiscal deficit between 5.2% and 5.4%, allowing room for increased revenue expenditure. Samiran Chakrabarty and Soumya Kanti Ghosh expect a higher fiscal deficit of 5.5%, citing the need for the government to balance fiscal consolidation goals with current economic conditions.

Conclusion:

As the interim budget date approaches, insights from the panel of economists shed light on the expectations and speculations surrounding fiscal policies. The delicate balance between populist measures, tax reforms, and fiscal consolidation will undoubtedly shape India’s economic landscape in the coming year. Investors and citizens alike will keenly await the budget presentation on Feb 1 to witness how these expectations materialize.

Navigating Interim Budget 2024 Expectations: Insights into Tax Slabs, Capex, and Fiscal Deficit Read More »

Countdown to Union Budget 2024: Fiscal Deficit, Borrowings and GDP

Introduction: Union Budget 2024

As the anticipation builds around Union Budget 2024, CNBC TV18 hosted a panel discussion featuring prominent economists to delve into the key expectations for the upcoming budget. Latha Venkatesh moderated the discussion, engaging in a conversation with experts including Samiran Chakrabarty of Citi, Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI, Kaushik Das of Deutsche Bank, and R-Kavita Rao of NIPFP. In this article, we will analyze the insights shared by the experts regarding fiscal deficit expectations, market dynamics, and the overall economic outlook.

Fiscal Deficit Expectations: Union Budget 2024

The discussion opened with a poll on fiscal deficit expectations for the forthcoming fiscal year, with varying opinions among the economists. Samiran Chakrabarty expressed a pragmatic view, suggesting that achieving a 5.5% fiscal deficit might not be a cause for concern, given the unique circumstances of the year. He emphasized the global Bond index inclusion, which is expected to generate an extra demand of $25 billion for bonds. Chakrabarty argued that a marginally higher fiscal deficit may not pose a significant challenge, especially considering the government’s historical credibility in presenting fiscal numbers.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh echoed similar sentiments, highlighting the historical trend of revisions in fiscal deficit numbers between interim budgets and the actual budgets. He suggested that the government might announce a 5.5% fiscal deficit, with the possibility of the number declining later due to statistical artifacts and an anticipated higher GDP growth rate.

Countdown to Union Budget 2024

Kaushik Das, on the other hand, emphasized the importance of sticking to the fiscal consolidation agenda. He argued that achieving a 5.3% fiscal deficit is feasible and crucial, especially with the opportunity provided by Bond index inclusion. Das stressed the need to demonstrate seriousness about reaching the 4.5% fiscal deficit target in the future.

Market Dynamics and Borrowings: Union Budget 2024

The experts emphasized that the market’s reaction would depend on the expected market borrowings. Regardless of whether the fiscal deficit is 5.3% or 5.5%, the crucial factor is the magnitude of net and gross market borrowings. If the gross market borrowings exceed expectations, it could lead to a market sell-off, irrespective of the fiscal deficit number.

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Nominal GDP Projections: Union Budget 2024

The panel discussed the significance of nominal GDP projections, considering their impact on the fiscal deficit, which is a percentage of the nominal GDP. The advanced estimates, indicating a lower nominal GDP than budgeted, raised questions about real growth and inflation assumptions. The experts suggested a nominal GDP projection of at least 10.5% to 11%, aligning with the expected economic growth and positive wholesale inflation.

Conclusion:

As the countdown to Union Budget 2024 continues, economists remain optimistic about the government’s ability to manage fiscal deficits and demonstrate prudence in economic decision-making. The discussion highlighted the delicate balance between meeting fiscal targets, market dynamics, and the need for credible economic projections. Investors and analysts will be closely watching the budget announcement for cues on the government’s fiscal stance and its impact on the broader economy.

Countdown to Union Budget 2024: Fiscal Deficit, Borrowings and GDP Read More »