January 2024

Unlock market insights with Raamdeo Agrawal! Explore Q3 numbers, market trends, and future prospects in this exclusive interview. #RaamdeoAgrawal #MarketAnalysis

Introduction:

Renowned market investor Raamdeo Agrawal, co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, recently shared valuable insights in an exclusive interview with ET Now. The discussion covered a wide range of topics, including quarterly numbers, the outlook for small and midcap stocks, and the impact of current market trends on capital market-focused businesses like Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Market Overview:

Agrawal began by acknowledging the exceptional performance of Motilal Oswal Financial Services in the recent quarter, citing all-time highs in various aspects, such as operating metrics, mark-to-market, assets under advisory, and assets under management. He attributed this success to the ongoing trend in the capital market, emphasizing that the experience for the larger masses has been positive, with substantial returns seen post-COVID.

Digital Onboarding and Market Expansion:

The interview delved into the transformative shift in the capital market outlook, with digital onboarding enabling investors to open accounts and start trading within minutes. Raamdeo Agrawal highlighted the vertical growth in the capital market, evidenced by the significant increase in demat accounts from 30-40 million to 144 million. He emphasized that this influx of funds is likely to stay, contributing to the wealth effect and potentially boosting the country’s GDP growth.

Predictions for Capital Market Business:

Discussing the quarterly numbers, Raamdeo Agrawal expressed optimism about the horizontal expansion of the capital market business. He acknowledged the momentum in the market, driven by upcoming budget announcements and elections, predicting a continued positive trajectory. While he acknowledged potential slowdowns during market downturns, he emphasized the current positive momentum and the addition of a substantial number of new accounts.

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Challenges in Brokerage Business:

Addressing concerns about increasing competition and reducing yields in the brokerage business, Raamdeo Agrawal explained the dynamics of the industry. He highlighted the rapid growth in the number of customers but acknowledged the challenge of maintaining yields as the business becomes more option-oriented. Despite this, he noted that efficient cost control has led to margin expansion, and the coming year is expected to see a strong capital market, particularly with new listings and IPOs.

Raamdeo Agrawal’s Outlook on Banks:

Agrawal provided insights into the challenges faced by banks, particularly in the context of a competitive landscape and limited pricing power. While retail loan demand remains strong, he noted concerns about the limited pricing power and potential compression in Net Interest Margins (NIM). He suggested that the market is currently apprehensive about the impact on Return on Tangible Assets (ROTA) and emphasized the need for banks to adapt to changing dynamics.

Diversification in Portfolio:

The interview touched upon Motilal Oswal’s evolving investment strategy, highlighting the addition of diverse names in manufacturing and energy to their portfolios. Agrawal explained the shift towards consistent performance and risk management, aiming for 3-5% outperformance rather than extreme highs and lows.

Future Growth and Market Predictions:

In the concluding segment, Raamdeo Agrawal shared his optimistic outlook for the Indian market, drawing parallels to the 1992 bull market. He emphasized the combination of strong fundamentals, economic resurgence, and massive liquidity influx, creating an uncharted trajectory for the market. While acknowledging higher valuations, he predicted a robust five to ten years for the market, with the potential for significant wealth creation.

Conclusion:

Raamdeo Agrawal’s insights provide a comprehensive overview of the current market scenario, shedding light on key trends, challenges, and growth prospects. As the market continues to evolve, investors can benefit from these strategic perspectives to make informed decisions in the dynamic financial landscape.

In a recent chat with CNBC TV18, Latha Venkatesh engaged in a comprehensive discussion with Samir Arora, the Founder and Fund Manager of Helios Capital, shedding light on the current state of the Indian market and the factors influencing its trajectory.

Indian Market Dynamics:

The dialogue commenced with a focus on the sudden downturn in the Indian market, characterized by a notable wave of Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) sell-offs. Despite the Nifty’s impressive 18% gain in 2023, January witnessed a 2% dip, with small and midcap indexes experiencing even greater setbacks, primarily attributed to the orchestrated FII selling spree.

Expert Insights: Samir Arora’s Perspective:

Samir Arora, a seasoned expert in the field, dismissed the prevailing sell-offs as not reflective of a pessimistic FII stance towards India. He pinpointed the impact of HDFC Bank’s performance on the market but emphasized that the larger picture did not warrant panic. Arora’s analysis suggested that the current selling trend might not signify a significant shift in FII sentiment toward the Indian market.

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• Raamdeo Agrawal on Market Trends And Future Prospects

HDFC Bank Performance and Strategy:

A key focus of the conversation was on HDFC Bank’s performance, with Arora clarifying that Helios Capital had not liquidated any holdings. Arora expressed confidence in the bank’s ability to deliver steady returns, despite short-term market fluctuations. He highlighted the market’s tendency to overreact to minor news, advocating for a diversified investment strategy that avoids concentrating all investments in one sector.

Market Outlook and Returns:

Arora presented a pragmatic outlook on market returns, anticipating mid-teen percentage growth due to corrections post significant events. He stressed the importance of relative and absolute performance, suggesting that a mid-teen figure would be a realistic expectation for the market, rather than the optimistic 20%.

Budget and Market Expectations:

The conversation briefly touched on budget expectations, with Samir Arora expressing his detachment from the current budget discussions as he was overseas. However, he remarked that significant announcements just before an election might be unlikely. Arora did not foresee substantial developments in the budget having a significant impact on the market.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the dialogue between Latha Venkatesh and Samir Arora provided valuable insights into the intricacies of the Indian market. Samir Arora’s perspective on HDFC Bank, market strategy, and realistic expectations for returns contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the current economic landscape. Investors and enthusiasts looking for informed perspectives on the Indian market will find this discussion insightful and beneficial.

In a recent episode of Market Cafe of CNBC TV18, renowned investor Vijay Kedia shared valuable insights into his investment philosophy, highlighting the importance of staying grounded and making informed decisions. This article explores key takeaways from the conversation, emphasizing Kedia’s strategies for identifying potential multi-baggers and navigating the dynamic market landscape.

Investing Wisdom from Vijay Kedia:

Vijay Kedia, a veteran investor with over three decades of experience, emphasizes the cyclical nature of bull markets. He notes that bull markets create an environment where even average investors may appear as geniuses, but it’s crucial to remain humble and not attribute success solely to personal skill.

The Smile Formula:

Vijay Kedia follows a simple yet effective investment philosophy known as the “Smile Formula.” This strategy involves investing in companies that are small in size, medium in experience, large in aspiration, and have extra-large market potential. This approach guides him in identifying companies with significant growth potential.

Choosing Multibaggers: The Vijay Kedia Way

Kedia shares his method of identifying potential multi-baggers by focusing on companies that have faced setbacks but possess the stamina to recover. Using the example of Tejas Networks during the COVID-19 pandemic, he explains how he identified the company’s potential for a rebound when its stock price plummeted from 400 to 40 rupees.

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Investing in Trends:

Kedia advises investors to pay attention to emerging trends and opportunities. He cites the shift in consumer behavior, where luxury becomes a necessity, as a key indicator of future market trends. For instance, he points to the growing importance of domestic tourism, leading him to invest in companies related to the hospitality industry.

Remaining Grounded:

Despite his success, Kedia remains grounded by recognizing that market statements belong to the market, while bank statements belong to the individual investor. He stresses the importance of separating oneself from market achievements and keeping a level head to make rational decisions.

Advice for Young Investors:

For aspiring investors, Kedia offers practical advice. He suggests creating initial capital for investment through disciplined savings rather than venturing into high-risk futures and options trading. By curbing unnecessary expenses, individuals can accumulate the necessary capital to start investing with a higher chance of success.

Conclusion:

Vijay Kedia’s insights provide a roadmap for investors looking to navigate the markets successfully. By emphasizing humility, strategic investing, and an awareness of market trends, Kedia’s approach offers a valuable perspective for both seasoned investors and those just starting their investment journey. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed and adopting a disciplined approach remains key to long-term success in the world of investing.