Economy

In a candid conversation with CNBC TV18 at Davos 2024, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das shared valuable insights into India’s economic journey, emphasizing resilience amid global volatility.

RBI Governor’s Perspective on Economic Resilience

Addressing the challenges faced by countries globally in the last four years, Das highlighted India’s remarkable ability to navigate through turbulent times. The period, described as one of “great volatility,” has seen India not just weathering the storm but emerging as a beacon of macroeconomic stability and financial resilience.

Outlook for 2024: Stability Amidst Global Uncertainties

As the conversation shifted to the outlook for 2024, the RBI Governor acknowledged the relatively stable domestic scenario. However, he also pointed to the uncertainties unfolding in the global arena, especially in the Red Sea region. Das reiterated India’s preparedness to face existing challenges while maintaining a cautious stance in the face of evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Also Read:

• Borge Brende Optimistic About India’s Growth
• Bill Gates at Davos 2024
• Gita Gopinath At Davos 2024
• Countdown to Union Budget 2024

Central Bank’s Dilemma: Balancing Stakeholder Expectations

Discussing the central banker’s dilemma, Das addressed the growing pressure from various quarters, including industry, consumers, and the government, to cut interest rates. He emphasized the need for a cautious and deliberate approach, asserting that any premature policy changes could potentially lead to disruptions. The commitment to a rate cut remains contingent on sustaining inflation at the targeted 4%.

Credit Growth Monitoring and Robust Banking Sector

In a focused discussion on the banking sector, the RBI Governor shed light on the preemptive measures taken to monitor credit growth. While clarifying that no specific credit-deposit ratio has been mandated, Das reassured that the Indian banking sector stands robust. With low non-performing assets, strong profitability, and capital adequacy, the sector has undergone significant positive transformations.

Regulatory Measures in Fintech Sector and Cryptocurrency Stance

Das delved into regulatory measures in the fintech sector, emphasizing guidelines to boost investor confidence. On the cryptocurrency front, he maintained a cautious stance, distinguishing between the underlying technology and the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies. The RBI Governor stressed the importance of clear distinctions, noting the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies marketed as assets.

Global Economic Perspectives and Strengthening Emerging Markets

Expressing the need for a balanced view from international institutions, Das called on entities like the IMF to adopt a nuanced approach toward emerging markets like India. He emphasized the importance of these markets building their strengths and reserves to insulate themselves from global currency fluctuations. India’s Forex buffer, standing at $620 billion, instills confidence in its ability to meet external obligations.

Future Growth and Economic Priorities

As the discussion turned towards future growth, Governor Das underscored ongoing efforts to strengthen the financial sector and contribute to macroeconomic stability. With a focus on actively disinflationary policies, he expressed confidence in India’s ability to sustain its growth momentum. The Governor’s insights portrayed a comprehensive strategy aligning growth potential with actual growth, ensuring long-term economic stability.

In conclusion, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’s reflections at Davos 2024 offer a comprehensive narrative of India’s economic resilience and strategic priorities in the face of global economic challenges.

In an exclusive interview with Times Network, World Economic Forum President Borge Brende shared insights on the challenges faced, geopolitical concerns, and his optimism about India’s growth. The World Economic Forum 2024 at Davos brought together key players from around the world to discuss pressing issues in a fragmented and fractured global landscape.

Global Fragmentation and Collaboration

Borge Brende emphasized the difficulty of the current geopolitical backdrop, highlighting the need for dialogue among key players. Despite intense competition, the summit aimed to find common ground for collaboration, particularly in areas like climate change and artificial intelligence.

Also Read:

RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024

Geopolitical Challenges

Addressing geopolitical challenges, Brende expressed concern about conflicts in the Middle East, the Red Sea situation, and ongoing tensions between major nations. He stressed the importance of preventing further escalations to safeguard global trade and economic growth.

Trade Cold War and Economic Recovery

With an ongoing trade cold war between the U.S. and China, Brende acknowledged concerns about protectionism and tariffs. However, he remained cautiously optimistic, citing a 3% expected growth in global trade this year. He highlighted the necessity of trade and investment recovery for real economic resurgence.

Also Read:

Gita Gopinath At Davos 2024

India’s Economic Outlook

Brende revealed his bullish stance on India’s economy, projecting over 7% growth. He commended India’s digital trade position and the growth of services, making it a trillion-dollar economy. He attributed India’s success to factors such as supply chain diversification and a favorable relationship with the U.S.

India’s Role on the Global Stage

Recognizing India’s significant role globally, Borge Brende underscored the country’s influence on the world stage. He praised India’s economic momentum, digital advancements, and its emergence as a manufacturing hub for products like iPhones.

Also Read:

RBI Governor at Davos 2024

Challenges and Opportunities

Acknowledging the challenges posed by elections in various democracies, Brende urged India to maintain its reform momentum, focusing on infrastructure, reducing red tape, and opening up to foreign direct investments. He highlighted the importance of providing world-class education to India’s youth for long-term success.

Borge Brende’s Message to Indian Stakeholders

Brende advised Indian stakeholders to continue reforms, avoid complacency, and invest in education, R&D, infrastructure, and capital markets. He commended India’s resilience during the pandemic, with the emergence of numerous unicorns, showcasing the nation’s incredible potential.

Conclusion:

In a world grappling with geopolitical complexities and economic uncertainties, Borge Brende’s optimism about India’s growth provides a ray of hope. As India navigates through challenges, maintaining a focus on reforms and global collaboration remains crucial for sustained economic success.

Unlock profound insights into the economic landscape with RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024. Explore key articles, analyses, and trends for informed decision-making.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has unveiled a wealth of economic insights in the January 2024 edition of its Monthly Bulletin. This release, encompassing seven speeches, six articles, and crucial statistics, provides a detailed overview of the current economic landscape. Accompanying this edition are two supplements – the Financial Stability Report for December 2023 and the Report on Trend and Progress of Banking for 2022-23.

Key Articles of RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024

I. State of the Economy:

Within the RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024, the global economic scenario unfolds, revealing diverging growth prospects. Emerging markets, especially those led by Asia, are anticipated to outshine others. Notably, the Indian economy’s resilience in 2023-24, steering towards investment-centric growth, is highlighted. The government’s push for capital expenditure is proving instrumental in crowding in private investment. The Bulletin also notes a marginal uptick in headline inflation in December, primarily attributed to heightened food prices due to unfavorable base effects.

II. Are Food Prices the ‘True’ Core of India’s Inflation?

A pivotal discussion within RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024, this article by Michael Debabrata Patra, Joice John, and Asish Thomas George explores the core-like attributes of food inflation in India. It scrutinizes volatility, persistence, spillovers, and cyclical sensitivity, offering valuable insights crucial for monetary policy decisions.

III. Dynamics of Credit Growth in the Retail Segment: Risk and Stability Concerns

In this section of RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024, Vijay Singh Shekhawat, Avdhesh Kumar Shukla, ACV Subrahmanyam, and Jugnu Ansari delve into retail credit flows and asset quality dynamics. Post-pandemic, improvements in the retail credit portfolio are evident. Vigilance is emphasized, especially in vulnerable sub-segments within the unsecured space, despite robust overall credit flows.

IV. Stock-Bond Correlation and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from India

A meticulous examination conducted by Amit Pawar, Mayank Gupta, Palak Godara, and Subrat Kumar Seet within RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024 explores time-varying stock-bond correlation in India from April 2004 to August 2023. The findings underline the transient nature of negative stock-bond correlation in India, highlighting the potential of bonds in reducing equity portfolio volatility.

Also Read:

• Unlocking Insights: RBIs Monthly Bulletin February 2024
• Risks in the US Commercial Real Estate Market
• Borge Brende Optimistic About India’s Growth
• Gita Gopinath At Davos 2024

V. Agriculture Supply Chain Dynamics: Evidence from Pan-India Survey

Addressing the intricate dynamics of agriculture supply chains, this article by D. Suganthi, Rishabh Kumar, and Monika Sethi, as part of RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024, unveils findings from a comprehensive pan-India survey. The results underscore the imperative of enhancing agricultural markets, warehouses, and pre-processing facilities to improve competition, supply management, and reduce wastages in the supply chain.

VI. Climate Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis: Navigating Uncharted Waters

Within the RBI’s Monthly Bulletin January 2024, Amit Sinha and Shivang Bhanvadia detail a pilot climate vulnerability assessment and stress test (VAST) exercise. This exploration of climate-related financial risks underscores banks’ vulnerability and the imperative to enhance capabilities in identifying, assessing, measuring, monitoring, and managing these risks effectively.

It is paramount to note that the views expressed in these articles are those of the respective authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India. The January 2024 Bulletin emerges as a key source of information, unlocking valuable insights into the economic landscape and informing stakeholders in the financial sector.

Discover the latest updates on small saving schemes interest rates from January 2024! Explore government decisions impacting interest rates and learn how to make the most of your savings. Stay informed with key insights on small saving schemes in the current financial landscape.

Government Announces Significant Changes in Small Saving Schemes Rates for Q1 2024

On Friday, the government unveiled the interest rates applicable to small savings schemes for the January-March 2024 quarter. A notable adjustment is set to take place in the interest rates of select small savings schemes and post office schemes as of March 31, 2024, as outlined in the official government announcement made on December 29, 2023. While the interest rates for the Public Provident Fund (PPF) remain steadfast at 7.1 percent, there are increments in the interest rates for the Sukanya Samriddhi Account Scheme and the three-year time deposit.

Key Adjustments: Sukanya Samriddhi Account Scheme (SSAS) and Three-Year Time Deposit Rates Surge by 20 Basis Points

Specifically, there has been a 20 basis points increase in the interest rates for both the Sukanya Samriddhi Account Scheme (SSAS) and the three-year time deposit. The SSAS interest rate now stands at 8.2 percent for the January-March 2024 period. Notably, a basis point is equivalent to one-hundredth of a percentage point. It’s important to highlight that the interest rates for all other small savings schemes will remain unchanged from the rates offered in the October-December period.

Also Read: GAIL’s Green Revolution

Unlocking the Formula: Understanding How Small Savings Rates Align with Market Yields

The determination of interest rates on small savings is closely linked to market yields on government securities, with a spread of 0-100 basis points over the yield of comparable-maturity securities. Consequently, as market yields on government securities fluctuate during the reference period, the interest rates on small savings schemes adjust accordingly, adhering to the government’s prescribed formula.

Government’s Quarterly Scrutiny of Small Savings Rates and the Shyamala Gopinath Committee’s Impactful Methodology

The government conducts periodic reviews of the interest rates for small savings schemes every quarter. The methodology proposed by the Shyamala Gopinath Committee guides the determination of these rates. Consistent with the committee’s recommendations, interest rates for various schemes are advised to be set within a range of 25 to 100 basis points above the yields of government bonds with corresponding maturities.

Also Read:

• Dividend Adjustment Of VEDL For June 2023
• Dividend Adjustment Of ITC For March 2023

RBI Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2021-22 says the financial performance of banks and financial institutions in India has been strong in 2021-22, with double-digit growth in the consolidated balance sheet of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) and credit growth reaching a ten-year high. The credit growth accelerated to a ten-year high in H1:2022-23.

• Double-digit growth in the consolidated balance sheet of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)
• Credit growth reached a ten-year high in the first half of 2022-23
• Strengthening of the capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of SCBs
• Decline in the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio of SCBs
• Improvement in profitability for SCBs, with acceleration in income and contraction in expenditure
• Improved financial performance for urban cooperative banks (UCBs), with augmented capital buffers and a decline in the GNPA ratio
• Maintained strong liquidity buffers and a strong capital position in the non-banking financial sector (NBFC), while seeing an improvement in asset quality

Overview of financial performance in 2021-22

RBI Report tells the financial performance of banks and financial institutions in India has been strong in 2021-22, with growth in the consolidated balance sheet of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) and credit growth reaching a ten-year high in the first half of 2022-23. The capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of SCBs has strengthened, and the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio has declined.

In addition, income has accelerated and expenditure has contracted, leading to improvements in profitability for SCBs. Urban co-operative banks (UCBs) have also seen improvements in their financial performance, and the non-banking financial sector (NBFC) has maintained strong liquidity buffers and a strong capital position while seeing an improvement in asset quality. According to the RBI report overall, it has been a positive year for banks and financial institutions in India.

Double-digit growth in the consolidated balance sheet of SCBs

The consolidated balance sheet of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in India registered double-digit growth in 2021-22 after a gap of seven years tells RBI report. This growth was driven by credit growth, which reached a ten-year high in the first half of 2022-23. The strong performance of the SCB sector was supported by a strengthening of the capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR), with all banks meeting the regulatory minimum capital requirement and the common equity tier-1 (CET-1) ratio requirement.

The growth in the consolidated balance sheet is a positive indicator of the health of the SCB sector, as it reflects an increase in the total assets and liabilities held by these banks. This growth can be attributed to a variety of factors, including strong demand for credit and a favorable economic environment. The double-digit growth in the consolidated balance sheet is a welcome development for the SCB sector and bodes well for the future performance of these banks.

Credit growth reaches a ten-year high

The RBI report further states that credit growth in India reached a ten-year high in the first half of 2022-23, contributing to the strong performance of the scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in the country. Credit growth refers to the expansion of a bank’s loan portfolio, and is an important indicator of the demand for credit in the economy.

The strong credit growth seen in India in the first half of 2022-23 is a positive sign for the economy, as it reflects an increase in investment and consumption. It can also be seen as a sign of confidence in the banking sector, as borrowers are more likely to take on new loans when they feel that the economic environment is favorable.

The SCBs in India have played a key role in driving this credit growth, as they have increased their lending to meet the demand for credit. The strong credit growth seen in the first half of 2022-23 is a welcome development for the SCB sector and bodes well for the future performance of these banks.

Strengthening of CRAR for SCBs

The capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) is a measure of a bank’s financial strength, as it indicates the extent to which the bank has sufficient capital to support its risk-weighted assets. A higher CRAR indicates that a bank has a stronger capital position, which can provide a cushion against potential losses and help to maintain the stability of the bank.

The CRAR of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in India has strengthened in recent years, says the RBI report. It increased from 16.3% at the end of March 2021 to 16.8% at the end of March 2022. This improvement in the CRAR of SCBs is a positive development, as it reflects an increase in the capital held by these banks.

The strengthening of the CRAR for SCBs in India is particularly notable, as it occurred while all banks met the regulatory minimum capital requirement of 11.5% as well as the common equity tier-1 (CET-1) ratio requirement of 8%. This indicates that the SCBs in India have been able to maintain a strong capital position while also meeting the regulatory requirements for capital adequacy. The improvement in the CRAR for SCBs is a positive sign for the financial health of these banks and promises well for their future performance.

Decline in GNPA ratio for SCBs

The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio is a measure of the percentage of a bank’s total loans that are classified as non-performing. Non-performing assets are loans that are not being serviced in accordance with their terms and may be at risk of default. A high GNPA ratio can be a sign of financial stress for a bank, as it indicates that a significant portion of the bank’s loans are not generating income.

In the RBI report, the GNPA ratio of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in India has been declining in recent years, falling from its peak in 2017-18 to reach 5.8% at the end of March 2022. This decline in the GNPA ratio is a positive development, as it reflects an improvement in the asset quality of these banks.

The decline in the GNPA ratio for SCBs in India has been driven by a combination of lower slippages and a reduction in outstanding GNPAs. Slippages refer to the conversion of performing loans into non-performing loans, and a reduction in slippages indicates that fewer loans are becoming non-performing. The reduction in outstanding GNPAs, meanwhile, reflects the successful resolution of non-performing assets by the SCBs.

The decline in the GNPA ratio for SCBs in India is a positive sign for the financial health of these banks, as it indicates that they are managing their assets effectively and reducing the risk of potential losses. It is also a positive development for the overall banking sector in India, as it suggests that the sector is becoming more stable and resilient.

Improvement in profitability for SCBs

The profitability of a bank is an important indicator of its financial performance, as it reflects the bank’s ability to generate income from its operations. Profitability can be measured in a variety of ways, including return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA). ROE measures the profitability of a bank in terms of the return generated on the equity invested by shareholders, while ROA measures the profitability of a bank in terms of the return generated on its total assets.

Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in India have seen an improvement in their profitability in recent years, as income has accelerated and expenditure has contracted. This has led to improvements in both ROE and ROA for SCBs.

The improvement in profitability for SCBs in India is a positive development, as it reflects an increase in the efficiency of these banks and their ability to generate income. It is also a positive sign for the overall banking sector in India, as it suggests that the sector is becoming more stable and resilient.

Improved financial performance for UCBs

Urban co-operative banks (UCBs) in India have seen an improvement in their financial performance in recent years, characterized by augmented capital buffers, a decline in the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio, and improved profitability indicators.

According to the RBI report, the augmentation of capital buffers refers to an increase in the capital held by UCBs, which can provide a cushion against potential losses and help to maintain the stability of these banks. The decline in the GNPA ratio for UCBs indicates an improvement in the asset quality of these banks, as it reflects a reduction in the percentage of loans that are classified as non-performing. The improved profitability indicators for UCBs, such as return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA), reflect an increase in the efficiency of these banks and their ability to generate income.

The improved financial performance of UCBs in India is a positive development, as it suggests that these banks are becoming more stable and resilient. It is also a positive sign for the overall banking sector in India, as it indicates that the sector is performing well and contributing to the growth of the economy.

Strong liquidity buffers and capital position maintained in NBFC sector

The RBI report mentions non-banking financial sector (NBFC) in India has maintained strong liquidity buffers, adequate provisioning, and a strong capital position during 2021-22, while also seeing an improvement in asset quality.

Liquidity buffers refer to the amount of cash and other assets that can be easily converted into cash that a financial institution has available to meet its short-term obligations. Adequate provisioning refers to the funds set aside by a financial institution to cover potential losses on its loans and other assets. A strong capital position refers to the financial strength of a financial institution, as it reflects the extent to which the institution has sufficient capital to support its risk-weighted assets.

The maintenance of strong liquidity buffers and a strong capital position in the NBFC sector in India is a positive development, as it indicates that these institutions are financially stable and capable of meeting their obligations. It is also a positive sign for the overall financial sector in India, as it suggests that the sector is performing well and contributing to the growth of the economy. The improvement in asset quality in the NBFC sector is also a positive development, as it reflects a reduction in the risk of potential losses for these institutions.

Conclusion

The conclusion of the RBI Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India is that 2021-22 was a positive year for banks and financial institutions in India. Highlights of the RBI report are strong growth in the consolidated balance sheet of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs), credit growth reaching a ten-year high, and an improvement in profitability. The capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of SCBs has strengthened, and the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio has declined.

Urban co-operative banks (UCBs) have also seen improvements in their financial performance, and the non-banking financial sector (NBFC) has maintained strong liquidity buffers and a strong capital position while seeing an improvement in asset quality. Overall, it has been a successful year for banks and financial institutions in India, and the outlook for the sector is positive.

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रूस के बैंकों के साथ UCO Bank और Yes Bank रुपए में ट्रेड सेटलमेंट करने का प्रारूप बना रहे हैं। ये बात एक सरकारी अधिकारी ने Moneycontrol को अपना नाम ना छापने की शर्त पर बताई।

International Trade in INR

11 जुलाई 2022 को रिज़र्व बैंक ऑफ़ इंडिया (RBI) ने ये कहा था कि अंतर्राष्ट्रीय व्यापार अब भारतीय मुद्रा में किया जा सकेगा। उसके कुछ महीने बाद दो भारतीय बैंक एक साथ रशियन बैंकों से इस बारे में बातचीत कर रहे हैं।

UCO Bank Yes Bank to Settle Trade in INR With Russia

ये बात अभी अधिकारिक तौर पर घोषित नहीं की गई है कि UCO Bank, Yes Bank के साथ मिल कर यह trade settlement के लिए रूस के बैंकों के साथ बातचीत कर रहा है।

Big Indian Banks Not Interested

RBI की इस घोषणा के बाद भी किसी बड़े भारतीय बैंक ने रूस के बैंकों के साथ इस तरह की व्यवस्था करने की कोशिश नहीं की, क्योंकि उनको रूस यूक्रैन में चल रहे संघर्ष के कारण अपने ऊपर प्रतिबंधों लगने का डर था।

How to Settle Trade in INR

रिज़र्व बैंक की 11 जुलाई की घोषणा के अनुसार वैश्विक व्यापार को भारतीय मुद्रा में किया जा सकता है। इसके लिए आयात या निर्यात के सारे इनवॉइस INR में बनाये जा सकते हैं। दो देशों जिनमें की यह व्यापार होगा उनकी मुद्रा की विनिमय दर से इस व्यापार को किया जा सकेगा।

इन व्यापार लेनदेन को settle करने के लिए भारत के अधिकृत बैंकों को जिस देश के साथ व्यापार हो रहा है उस देश के अधिकृत बैंकों में Special Rupee Vostro Account खोलना पड़ेगा।

Why RBI Allowed

अंतर्राष्ट्रीय अस्थिरता के कारण भारत की मुद्रा पर दबाव को कम करने के लिए भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक ने ये कदम उठाया है। भारत के बढ़ते हुए अंतर्राष्ट्रीय प्रभाव और भारतीय रूपए को एक अंतर्राष्ट्रीय लेनदेन की मुद्रा के रूप में स्थापित करने का यह एक प्रयास है।

अन्य पढ़ें:

• वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण की US यात्रा की खास बातें
• Indian Economy Outperforms World

निर्मला सीतारमण हाल ही में IMF और वर्ल्ड बैंक की वार्षिक बैठक में हिस्सा लेने के लिए अमेरिका की आधिकारिक यात्रा पर थी। चूँकि भारत G20 की अध्यक्षता दिसंबर 2022 से एक साल के लिए करने वाला है, इसलिए केंद्रीय मंत्री सीतारमण इस समय में G20 देशों के वित्त मंत्रियों से मिली। यहाँ वह US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen से मिली। इस दौरान उन्होंने IMF और वर्ल्ड बैंक के शीर्ष अधिकारियों के साथ भी बैठक की। G20 देशों के वित्त मंत्रियों के साथ साथ अन्य देशों के वित्त मंत्रियों से भी मिली।

केंद्रीय वित्त मंत्री सीतारमण की US यात्रा का उद्देश्य

वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण ने (11 से 16 अक्टूबर 2022 )अमेरिका के वाशिंगटन में दुनिया के कई वित्त मंत्रियों और कई अंतरराष्ट्रीय संगठनों के शीर्ष अधिकारी से बैठक की। संयुक्त राष्ट्र विकास कार्यक्रम (UNDP), आर्थिक सहयोग और विकास संगठन (OECD), और मनी लॉडरिंग और आंतकवाद की निगरानी करने वाली संस्था वित्तीय कार्रवाई कार्य बल (FATF) के शीर्ष अधिकारी के साथ चर्चाओं में भाग लिया और “भारत की आर्थिक संभावनाएं और विश्व अर्थव्यवस्था में भूमिका” के पक्ष को सबके समक्ष प्रस्तुत किया।

IMF के समक्ष सब्सिडी पर भारत का दृष्टिकोण

केंद्रीय वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण ने IMF की विकास समिति की वाशिंगटन में बैठक के दौरान आग्रह किया कि वर्ल्ड बैंक को सब्सिडी पर अपने एक तरफा दृष्टिकोण से बचना चाहिए। हमें इस बात पर अधिक ध्यान केंद्रित करते हुए अंतरराष्ट्रीय स्तर पर सहमत बुनियादी सिद्धांतों के साथ अलग अलग जिम्मेदारियों को समझना चाहिए। हमारे द्वारा दी जाने वाली कृषि, मत्स्य और पेट्रोलियम पदार्थों पर दी जाने वाली सब्सिडी सिर्फ कम आय वाले जरुरतमंदों को दी जाती है।

वर्ल्ड बैंक की तरफ से हमेशा भारत पर दबाव रहता है कि अपनी उर्वरक पेट्रोलियम और कृषि पर सब्सिडी को कम करे। इसी संदर्भ में बात करते हुए वित्त मंत्री ने उज्ज्वला योजना में दी जाने वाली सब्सिडी का उदाहरण देते हुए बताया कि किस तरह से ये गरीब महिलाओं के जीवन स्तर को सुधार रही है।

भारत की विकास दर

11अक्टूबर को IMF ने भारत की वृद्धि दर के अपने जनवरी के अनुमान 8.2 प्रतिशत से घटा कर 6.8 प्रतिशत कर दिया था। IMF ने रुस यूक्रैन के बीच चल रहे सैन्य संघर्ष के कारण सारी दुनिया की अर्थव्यवस्थाओं पर पड़ रहे नकारात्मक प्रभाव के कारण विकास दर में कमी की थी।

IMF ने कहा कि कोरोना वायरस की मार से उभरती हुई वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था को, रुस के यूक्रैन पर हमला करने के कारण, बढ़ती हुई खाने पीने की और ऊर्जा की महंगाई दर को झेलना पड़ रहा है। इस महंगाई को नियंत्रित करने के लिए केंद्रीय बैंकों द्वारा ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी मुश्किलों को और बढ़ाने वाली है। इस कारण हमें अगले साल की विकास दर के भी गिरने का अनुमान है।

वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण ने अमेरिका में अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष (IMF) और विश्व बैंक (World Bank) की वार्षिक मीटिंग में कहा कि भारत की विकास दर इस वित्त वर्ष के लिए 7 प्रतिशत के आस पास रहने का अनुमान है, लेकिन हमें वैश्विक विकास और भू-राजनैतिक (geo-political) वातावरण की चिंता है। विकसित देशों में मुद्रास्फीति और ऊर्जा की कमी भी हमारी चिंता में शामिल है।

सुश्री सीतारमण ने भारत के पक्ष को व्यक्त करते हुए कहा कि उनको पता है कि सारी दुनिया की विकास दर के अनुमान को घटाया जा रहा है। मुझे उम्मीद है कि भारत की विकास दर इस वित्त वर्ष के लिए 7 प्रतिशत के आसपास रहेगी। मुझे विश्वास है कि भारत शेष दशक में दुनिया की अपेक्षा ज्यादा विकास दर हासिल करेगा।

महामारी से निपटने की भारत का प्रयास

हमने महामारी की विभिन्न और जटिल चुनौतियों का सामना करते हुए आदर्श रुप प्रस्तुत किया है। सबसे पहले हम वैक्सीन के उत्पादन और टीकाकरण में तेजी लाए और इस महामारी से भारत को मुक्त करने के उद्देश्य को सार्थक करने का प्रयास किया। भारत में हमने 200 करोड़ वैक्सीन की खुराक लोगों को दी, जो कि भारत में ही बनी थी। फिर हमने अपने डिजिटल बुनियादी ढाँचे से सुनिश्चित किया कि राहत सही गंतव्य तक पहुंचे।

वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण ने कहा कि विकास मोदी सरकार की सबसे ज्यादा सबसे बड़ी प्राथमिकता है। कोरोना महामारी से बाहर निकलती हुई, भारत की अर्थव्यवस्था की गति को बरकरार रखना हमारी प्रमुख प्राथमिकताओं में शामिल है। निर्मला सीतारमण ने देश के विशाल सार्वजनिक वितरण नेटवर्क के माध्यम से 80 करोड़ से अधिक गरीब और कमजोर परिवारों को मुफ्त खाद्यान्न की उपलब्धता के बारे में भी बताया।

रुपए की गिरावट पर भारत का पक्ष

वित्त मंत्री ने कहा कि भारतीय रुपया गिर नहीं रहा बल्कि डॉलर मजबूत हो रहा है। भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था का आधार मजबूत है और हमारी मुद्रा कई उभरती हुई अर्थव्यवस्थाओं से बेहतर प्रदर्शन कर रही है। “भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था के आधार सुदृढ़ होने के साथ Macroeconomic फंडामेंटल भी अच्छे हैं।” रिज़र्व बैंक रुपए को बचाने की कोशिश नहीं कर रहा, बल्कि वे अनावश्यक अस्थिरता ना हो इस पर ध्यान दे रहा है।

व्यापार घाटे पर निर्मला सीतारमण ने कहा कि यह निश्चिंत ही चिंता का विषय है। हमारा निर्यात आयात के मुकाबले कम हो रहा है। हम इस बात पर भी नज़र रख रहे हैं कि किसी एक देश के साथ यह अंतर अधिक न बढ़ जाए।

यूरोप में संघर्ष का भारत पर असर

यूरोप में संघर्ष शुरू होने के बाद हमने सुनिश्चित किया कि खानेपीने का सामान और ईंधन सबको पर्याप्त मात्रा में उपलब्थ हो। इसलिए हमने खाद्य तेल पर आयात शुल्क और ईंधन पर उत्पाद शुल्क में कटौती की। केंद्रीय बैंक ने भी तत्परता से कार्य करते हुए प्रयास किया कि मुद्रास्फीति नियंत्रण में रहे और भारतीय मुद्रा का ह्रास इतनी तेजी से ना हो, जिसके कारण विश्वास का ह्रास हो।

आगामी बजट की चुनोतियाँ

आगामी बजट में हमारे लिए विकास को केंद्र में रखते हुए महंगे ईंधन और मुद्रास्फीति के साथ तालमेल बैठना जरुरी होगा। हमें ध्यान रखना होगा कि महंगे उर्वरक और ईंधन का प्रभाव आम जनता पर ना पड़े। महंगा ईंधन हमारे लिए सबसे बड़ी समस्या है।

महामारी के इतने बड़े झटके के बाद, यूरोप में संघर्ष के कारण ऊर्जा, खाद और खाने पीने की चीजें प्रभावित हुई हैं। अब इन सब के कारण वैश्विक बाजारों में सख्त मौद्रिक नीतियां अपनाई जा रही हैं । प्राकृतिक रुप से विकास दर की संभावनाएं सब देशों के साथ भारत की भी कम ही हैं। “हम बाहरी कारकों के माध्यम से भी प्रभावित हो रहे हैं” जिसने विकास और मुद्रास्फीति को दो धारी तलवार बना दिया है।

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S&P Global ने 12 अक्टूबर को कहा की भारत, चीन और इंडोनेशिया जैसी बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्थाएं जो कि अपनी घरेलू मांग पर निर्भर हैं, की विकास दर (Growth Rate) कम प्रभावित होगी। विश्व अर्थव्यवस्था की गिरती हुई वृद्धि दर और बाहरी मांग का प्रभाव इन देशों के ऊपर भी आएगा।

S&P’s Andrew Wood in Indian Growth Rate

S&P Global Ratings के Andrew Wood ने कहा कि भारत को इस समय दुनिया की अशांति, घटते हुए विदेशी मुद्रा भंडार और चालू खाता घाटा (current account deficit) से जूझना पड़ रहा है। बढ़ती हुई मुद्रास्फीति और इसके कारण ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी भी एक जटिल स्थिति है। यह सिर्फ भारत में ही नहीं बल्कि पुरे विश्व में है।

“India is facing a mixture of factors that may shake its sovereign credit metrics. Amid external turbulence, its foreign exchange reserves are falling, and its current account deficit is rising. Meanwhile, the economy is battling faster inflation and tightening financial conditions both at home and globally,”

Andrew Wood, Sovereign Analyst, S&P Global Ratings sovereign analyst

S&P Decreases Growth Rate Estimates

भारत की मजबूत आर्थिक विकास दर (Growth Rate) इसके उच्च राजकोषीय घाटे और कर्ज के बोझ आपस में संतुलन कायम कर लेते हैं। दुनिया के बाज़ारों में फैली हुई अशांति से यह Growth Rate भारत को बचाती है। S&P Global ने इस साल भारत की विकास दर का 7.3 प्रतिशत का अनुमान लगाया है। पिछले वित्त वर्ष में भारत की विकास दर 8.7 प्रतिशत थी।

Indian Forex Reserve

भारत का विदेशी मुद्रा भंडार पिछले साल के 634 बिलियन USD से इस साल 533 बिलियन USD रह गया है। S&P ने भारत के चालू खाते के घाटे (current account deficit) का अनुमान GDP के 3 प्रतिशत का किया है, जो कि पिछले वित्त वर्ष में 1.6 प्रतिशत था।

दुनिया भर में फैली मंदी की आशंका से भारत भी प्रभावित हुए बिना नहीं रह सकता। इसका असर भारत की Growth Rate पर 2023-24 में दिख सकता है। दुनिया भर में बढ़ती हुई मुद्रास्फीति और उसे नियंत्रण करने के लिए सेन्ट्रल बैंकों द्वारा ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी भारत के लिए भी कुछ नकारात्मक प्रभाव ला सकती है।

Russia-Ukraine Military Conflict’s Effect on Word Economy

S&P Global के Jose Perez Gorozpe ने कहा कि रूस यूक्रेन में सैन्य संघर्ष के कारण यूरोप में ऊर्जा संकट बढ़ता जा रहा है। विकसित अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में बढ़ती हुई मुद्रास्फीति के दबाव के कारण ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी बहुत तेजी से करनी पड़ सकती है।

“We see a significant risk that the Russia-Ukraine military conflict drags on, exacerbating Europe’s energy crisis, while at the same time interest rates in developed markets may have to rise even more sharply than in our base case to mitigate broadening inflation pressures,”

Jose Perez Gorozpe, S&P Global Ratings Emerging Markets Head of Credit Research

Europe in Recession

इस कारण से यूरोप में मंदी का प्रकोप काफी गहरा हो सकता है। साथ ही साथ अमेरिका में बेरोजगारी जो कि अपने निम्न स्तर पर चल रही है उसमें वृद्धि हो सकती है।

“This could result in a deeper-than-expected recession in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the US, with a concomitant rise in unemployment from historically low levels,”

Jose Perez Gorozpe, S&P Global Ratings Emerging Markets Head of Credit Research

S&P Global Ratings ने कहा कि इस नकारात्मक परिदृश्य की सम्भावना बढ़ती जा रही है और हमें लगता है कि इस नकारात्मक परिदृश्य की सम्भावना 33 प्रतिशत है। हमें लगता है कि इससे यूरोप में ऊर्जा की कीमतों में बढ़ोतरी और ऊर्जा की राशनिंग भी करनी पड़ सकती है।

European Banks to Follow US FED

यूरोप के सेंट्रल बैंकों को यूरो के डॉलर के सामने गिरने के कारण और अमेरिकन फेडरल रिज़र्व की ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी के कारण अपने यहाँ ब्याज दरें बढ़ानी पड़ सकती हैं। ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने से यूरोप मंदी में जा सकता है। यूरोप की GDP की Growth Rate 2023 में -1.3 प्रतिशत हो सकती है। यूरोप के देशों में जर्मनी पर इस मंदी का सब से ज्यादा प्रभाव पड़ेगा। USA की GDP भी 2023 में -0.3 प्रतिशत तक गिर सकती है।

Worst Emerging Economies

उभरती हुई अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में मेक्सिको जो कि लैटिन अमेरिका की एक विकासशील अर्थव्यवस्था है सब से ज्यादा प्रभावित होगी। यूरोप में पोलैंड की भी इसी प्रकार की स्थिति रह सकती है,क्योंकि वे भी एक विकासशील अर्थव्यवस्था है। इस सब के पीछे भी ऊर्जा पर व्यय ही मुख्य कारण है।

S&P Global ने कहा कि, जर्मनी और UK ने पिछले कुछ हफ्तों में काफी बड़े राहत के उपाय किए हैं, जिस कारण हमारे अनुमानों में फर्क आ सकता है। क्योंकि हमारे अनुमानों में इन राहत पैकेज के प्रभाव को शामिल नहीं किया गया।

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